Project Summary
The results and ultimate outcome of the 2016 presidential election shocked most political observers and prognosticators on both sides of the political divide. Trump’s victory was fueled by the breakdown of Democratic ‘blue wall’ states- Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, states that just four years prior, President Obama won handily. In 2020, Joe Biden was able to recapture these states for Democrats, but the margins were incredibly close, highlighting the new political reality for Democratic presidential campaigns in these regions.
What are we to make of this shift? Much effort and thought has gone into answering this question, and from a geographic perspective that analysis has tended to break down along three axes: rural, suburban, and urban. Conventional wisdom has framed the political divide as being one of Democratic strength in the metro areas, Republican strength in rural areas, and the ‘battleground’ residing in the suburbs.
However, an analysis conducted by American Family Voices and 21st Century Democrats in 2021 adds much needed nuance to this analysis within the Midwest and the American industrial heartland by highlighting ‘factory town’ counties within states in the mid-west[1]. These counties do not tend to fit the rural/suburban/urban geographic paradigm. Instead, they tend to be mid-sized areas in terms of population and rely more on an economy centered on manufacturing.
As that analysis shows, it is in these ‘factory town’ areas where Democrats have suffered an electoral collapse since 2012. Researchers divided counties within 10 states[2] in the industrial heartland into six economic/geographic categories: Metro/Big City, College/Univ, Suburbs, Midsize Manufacturing, Small Manufacturing and Rural[3]. The chart below, reproduced from the Factory Towns analysis, shows the change in Democratic vote share between 2012 and 2020.
It is with this context that TargetSmart has partnered with American Family Voices on a project to better understand the underlying electorate in these areas. For this project, we analyzed changes that have taken place on the voter file since 2012 (as well as other publicly available data) to provide an expanded portrait of the demographic and political shifts that may be driving this massive collapse in support for Democratic presidential candidates in these factory town regions.
In addition to a comprehensive report, a tableau dashboard is also available for stakeholders and other interested parties to examine the data more closely. Key findings from our analysis of the data are below.
Summary of Key Findings
Voters within Factory Town counties across the 10 states analyzed continue to make up a sizable share of the electorate: There is a temptation to view these counties within these states as ‘areas of decline’, which leads one toward an assumption that due to population shifts these areas’ ability to meaningfully impact statewide electoral outcomes will continue to diminish, benefiting Democrats. While we did measure some decline in voter registration and electoral share in these regions over the past three presidential cycles, that decline is relatively small. Democrats will need to compete aggressively in these regions to effectively compete statewide over the next decade.
The changes in partisanship, reflected on the 2012, 2016 and then 2020 voter files, is reflective of the change that has taken place electorally: In Factory Towns counties the share of the electorate modeled as Democrat moves from 33% in 2012 and 2016, down to just 24% in 2020, while the GOP share makes steady gains during the decade, going from 40% of the electorate in 2012, up to just over 51% of the electorate in 2020. This change is also seen through primary election participation trends, where participation in GOP primary elections in factory towns counties grew by 35%, while participation in Democratic primary elections after 2016 declined by 12%.
Get Out the Vote efforts for Democrats can still reap dividends: As we note in the report: Between 2012 and 2020, Democratic turnout in presidential elections ranged from 65% to 67%, while GOP turnout in the same counties ranged from 76% to 79%. Bringing Democratic turnout up to par with Republican turnout in Factory Towns counties for instance, in 2020, would have translated to an additional 878,000 votes, potentially making up for some of the Democratic electoral drop-off that has occurred in the region.
Middle Age voter share declined significantly between 2012 and 2020: The share of the vote in Factory Towns counties coming from 65+ year old’s increased from 25-29%, and the share of the 18-29 vote increased as well: 11-13%. Most significant however, has been the decline in 30–64-year-olds. This group made up 64% of the electorate in Factory Towns counties in 2012, but just 58% in 2020.
Testing the Narratives: Democratic Discouragement and GOP Enthusiasm and Vote Switching: It is clear after examining past vote history data, that Democratic discouragement in 2016, as well as increased GOP enthusiasm in 2016 and 2020 contributed in some way to the change in Democratic vote margins, but this seems to vary across states and counties. Overall, we estimate that in the aggregate, around 20% of the net vote shift away from Democrats during this period could theoretically be attributed to a combination of decreased Democratic turnout and higher than expected turnout among GOP leaning voters, whether modeled as GOP or as Independent/Unaffiliated. In addition, a sizable portion of the swing away from Democrats came from people who switched their votes between 2012 and 2020. An examination of partisan score changes between 2012 and 2020 among factory towns voters showed an aggregate decrease in average partisanship, which when applied to the total electorate, represents a shift of approximately 860,000 votes.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/05/us/politics/democrats-votes-midwest.html
[2] States: MI, WI, PA, OH, IA, IL, IN, MO, MN and 48 counties within upstate NY
[3] Researchers defined these categories as follows: Large Metro Counties contained cities with at least 200,000 people with diversified local economies. Suburban counties that border the large metro counties, which contain high concentrations of service jobs. College counties where a university or school represents the dominant economic industry. Midsize manufacturing counties where manufacturing jobs make up at least 13% of the local employment and contains a city with a population of at least 35,000 people. Small manufacturing counties where manufacturing jobs make up at least 13% of the local employment, with no cities of at least 35,000 people. And rural counties, which make up the remaining geographic areas and whose economies tend to rely more on agriculture, mining, or tourism.